By Vasiliki Koukoulioti, PhD researcher at Queen Mary University of London
The agreement on a global minimum tax reached by the G7 finance ministers on 5 June has been received with much enthusiasm, but there are still many questions on the details of the agreement.
Moreover, whether there will be a global consensus on the minimum tax or the accompanying new profit allocation rules any time soon depends on the reactions of the G20, due to meet in July, and the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework, comprised of more than 135 member countries and jurisdictions.
During their meeting on 4-5 June in London, the G7 finance ministers agreed on the principle of a global minimum tax rate of at least 15% on a country-by-country basis. They further agreed on reaching an equitable solution on the allocation of taxing rights to market jurisdictions on at least 20% of profit exceeding a 10% margin for the largest and most profitable multinational enterprises, while removing all digital services taxes. They also stressed the importance of progressing agreement on both in parallel.
While the agreement creates a broad framework, it leaves many open questions. It does not address what companies will be selected and affected beyond the tech giants. It also does not define the tax base on which the minimum tax rate will apply.
In addition, it will remain necessary to address how national tax systems and the existing network of double tax treaties will have to be adapted to fit into this multilateral agreement. Issues related to the complexities of enforcement and tax collection also need to be answered. These clarifications are necessary to prevent a significant increase in international tax disputes.
Most importantly, there will be winners and losers. Some initial studies estimate that the tax reforms will weigh heavily on most developing and emerging economies, as well as some EU member states with preferential tax regimes, including Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Meanwhile, the largest economies may stand to benefit the most.
Also, considering that any deal is based on the removal of all digital services taxes, it is at this point infeasible to make any accurate assessment on the impact on countries and corporations.
Nevertheless, most countries are already trying to quantify the net tax losses/gains of a global tax deal. This is especially true of developing and emerging economies that might face challenges in attracting direct investments in their jurisdictions and collecting much needed tax revenues if a minimum tax rate is agreed upon, causing a shift to other forms of competition.
The road to a global tax agreement seems to be long, involving many technical and policy complexities and challenges. The G7 agreement will signify a change for most countries, and it remains to be seen how the new landscape on cross border taxation will look.
Lead up to the G7 agreement
The reform of the international tax system, considered to have been outpaced by globalisation and digitalisation, and as a result to have been creating opportunities for corporate tax avoidance, especially by multinational enterprises, has been at the top of the OECD/G20 tax agenda.
Since the initiation of its Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Project in 2013, the OECD has addressed, among other issues, the challenges posed to the global tax system by digitalisation and the emergence of major technology companies. In this context, it proposed a two-pillar approach, adopted by the Inclusive Framework, to establish new profit allocation and nexus rules (Pillar I) and introduce global minimum taxation (Pillar II).
Until recently, the prospect of reaching a global consensus-based long-term solution by the end of 2020 seemed by most countries unrealistic, especially due to strong US concerns on the mandatory character of any new measure and the increased proliferation of digital services taxes around the world that are considered by the US to be discriminatory against US-based digital corporations.
In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has unavoidably delayed any significant progress on this project, while at the same time increased the pressure on governments for collection of additional tax revenues to fund the post-pandemic response and recovery. Hence, in this context of strong division of opinion and other pandemic-related priorities, the new deadline for a global solution was set for mid-2021, while scepticism on the feasibility of the project and new timeframe remained.
Nevertheless, in April the US Treasury via its Secretary, Janet Yellen, announced that it is working with the G20 to agree to a global minimum corporate tax rate that could stop the race to the bottom.
The initial 21% rate was later revised to “at least” 15%, while the US Trade Representative announced its intention to maintain the option of imposing tariffs on certain goods from countries with digital services taxes.
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